India–Russia–China Trade: Trends, Figures, and Commodity Flows
At a strategic crossroads of its foreign policy and economic goals, India deepens its trade ties with both Russia and China—yet the scale, structure, and implications of these relationships differ widely.
India–Russia: Energy-Driven Trade and Strategic Alignment
Trade Volume
India–Russia trade surged to a record US$68.7 billion in 2024–25, with ambitions to reach US$100 billion by 2030.
Major Imports
- In FY2023–24, imports from Russia totaled US$61.4 billion, dominated by crude oil at US$46.5 billion—accounting for 76% of trade—and supported by fertilizers (~US $2.07B), coal, vegetable oils, precious stones, and metals.
Key Exports
- India exported goods worth US$4.26 billion to Russia in 2023–24. Leading categories included engineering goods (~US$1.3B), pharmaceuticals (~US $518M), electronic goods, and chemicals.
Strategic Context
- Russia is India’s top arms supplier and energy partner. Despite Western pressure—including U.S. tariffs on Russian oil imports—India maintains its ties, defending them as essential for energy security and military readiness.
- A push to enhance trade and investment cooperation is underway, including a Chennai–Vladivostok maritime corridor to shorten transit times from 40 to 24 days.
India–China: A Steep Trade Deficit and Deep Supply Dependencies
Trade Imbalance
- Total India–China trade hit US$127.7 billion in 2024–25, with a widening deficit of US$99.2 billion—one of India’s most significant bilateral imbalances.
- The deficit grew from about US$85 billion in 2023–24.
Imports: Dominated by Electronics and Machinery
- India’s imports from China in FY2024–25 included electronics (~US $29.5B), machinery (~US $15.2B), chemicals (~US $12.8B), EV batteries and solar cells (~US $8.4B), and other industrial inputs (~US $7.6B).
- Broader data highlights imports of electrical machinery (~US $31.35B), nuclear reactors and mechanical appliances (~US $22.47B), and organic chemicals (~US $11B).
Exports: Raw Materials and Industrial Goods
- India exported ~US $14.25 billion to China in FY2024–25, in decline over time. Key exports included iron ore, engineering goods, textiles, spices, agricultural products, and mining materials.
Strategic Concern
- India’s heavy dependence on Chinese supplies—especially in electronics, pharmaceutical inputs (APIs), solar components, and batteries—poses risks to economic security.
- While India is implementing schemes like Make in India and PLI to bolster domestic production, analysts warn of persistent structural challenges in rebalancing trade.
Comparative Snapshot
| Trade Axis | Value & Growth | Key Imports | Key Exports |
|---|---|---|---|
| India–Russia | US $68.7B (2024–25) | Oil, fertilizers, coal, gems, oils | Engineering goods, pharma, chemicals |
| India–China | US $127.7B (2024–25), deficit US $99.2B | Electronics, machinery, chemicals, clean tech inputs | Iron ore, textiles, agri products, engineering goods |
Strategic Implications
- Russia Relationship: Anchored in energy security and defense, offering geopolitical autonomy but exposed to Western sanctions and diplomatic friction.
- China Relationship: Economically vital yet laden with structural flaws. Rebalancing will require industrial upgrades and reduced reliance on Chinese supply chains.
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